Combat Edge Intelligence

Demian Maia vs Jake Shields

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

28-11-0Record33-11-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Demian Maia Jiu-JitsuTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team

What's at stake

Demian Maia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jake Shields carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Demian MaiaNow 1774
If they win+11→ 1785
If they lose-13→ 1761
Jake ShieldsNow 1734
If they win+13→ 1747
If they lose-11→ 1723

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1768 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1652 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.80
Sig. strikes / min
2.77
44%
Strike accuracy
32%
2.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.50
64%
Strike defense
56%
2.49
Takedown avg.
1.19
25%
Takedown accuracy
12%
62%
Takedown defense
36%
0.99
Submission avg.
0.12

Trajectory

Demian MaiaJake Shields
1750180020172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

3 (11%)
KO/TKO
3 (9%)
14 (50%)
Submission
12 (36%)
11 (39%)
Decision
18 (55%)

Combat Edge model read

Demian Maia58%
Jake Shields 42%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Demian Maia a 58% favorite over Jake Shields in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Demian Maia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1734, a 40-point edge.

Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Demian Maia finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Jake Shields 45%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.