Combat Edge Intelligence

Demian Maia vs Jason MacDonald

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-11-0Record25-16-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Demian Maia Jiu-JitsuTeamPure Fitness

What's at stake

Demian Maia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Jason MacDonald carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Demian MaiaNow 1774
If they win+6→ 1780
If they lose-18→ 1756
Jason MacDonaldNow 1587
If they win+18→ 1605
If they lose-6→ 1581

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1768 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1600 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.80
Sig. strikes / min
1.55
44%
Strike accuracy
53%
2.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.70
64%
Strike defense
47%
2.49
Takedown avg.
1.43
25%
Takedown accuracy
16%
62%
Takedown defense
35%
0.99
Submission avg.
1.97

Trajectory

Demian MaiaJason MacDonald
160017001800201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

3 (11%)
KO/TKO
3 (12%)
14 (50%)
Submission
19 (76%)
11 (39%)
Decision
3 (12%)

Combat Edge model read

Demian Maia83%
Jason MacDonald 17%Elo baseline: 75%

The Combat Edge model makes Demian Maia a 83% favorite over Jason MacDonald in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).

Demian Maia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1587, a 187-point edge.

Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jason MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Demian Maia finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Jason MacDonald 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.