Combat Edge Intelligence

Demian Maia vs Jon Fitch

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-11-0Record32-8-2
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Demian Maia Jiu-JitsuTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

Demian Maia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jon Fitch carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Demian MaiaNow 1774
If they win+11→ 1785
If they lose-13→ 1761
Jon FitchNow 1741
If they win+13→ 1754
If they lose-11→ 1730

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1768 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1673 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.80
Sig. strikes / min
2.64
44%
Strike accuracy
51%
2.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.75
64%
Strike defense
54%
2.49
Takedown avg.
3.64
25%
Takedown accuracy
55%
62%
Takedown defense
56%
0.99
Submission avg.
0.88

Trajectory

Demian MaiaJon Fitch
17501800201920202021

Win method breakdown

3 (11%)
KO/TKO
7 (22%)
14 (50%)
Submission
5 (16%)
11 (39%)
Decision
20 (63%)

Combat Edge model read

Demian Maia54%
Jon Fitch 46%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Demian Maia a 54% favorite over Jon Fitch in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Demian Maia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1741, a 33-point edge.

Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Demian Maia finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Jon Fitch 38%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.