Demian Maia vs Jorge Masvidal
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-11-0Record35-17-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Demian Maia Jiu-JitsuTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Demian Maia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Jorge Masvidal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1785
If they lose-13→ 1761
If they win+13→ 1753
If they lose-11→ 1729
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1768 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1781 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Demian MaiaJorge Masvidal
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Demian Maia54%
Jorge Masvidal 46%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Demian Maia a 54% favorite over Jorge Masvidal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Demian Maia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1740, a 34-point edge.
Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Demian Maia finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Jorge Masvidal 51%.
Demian Maia and Jorge Masvidal share 4 common opponents: Gilbert Burns, Ben Askren, Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.