Combat Edge Intelligence

Demian Maia vs Jorge Santiago

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-11-0Record25-12-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Demian Maia Jiu-JitsuTeamBlackzilians

What's at stake

Demian Maia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jorge Santiago carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Demian MaiaNow 1774
If they win+10→ 1784
If they lose-14→ 1760
Jorge SantiagoNow 1703
If they win+14→ 1717
If they lose-10→ 1693

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1767 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.80
Sig. strikes / min
1.69
44%
Strike accuracy
35%
2.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.62
64%
Strike defense
56%
2.49
Takedown avg.
0.58
25%
Takedown accuracy
30%
62%
Takedown defense
52%
0.99
Submission avg.
0.77

Trajectory

Demian MaiaJorge Santiago
17001750180020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

3 (11%)
KO/TKO
10 (40%)
14 (50%)
Submission
13 (52%)
11 (39%)
Decision
2 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Demian Maia58%
Jorge Santiago 42%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Demian Maia a 58% favorite over Jorge Santiago in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Demian Maia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1703, a 71-point edge.

Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Jorge Santiago enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Demian Maia finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Jorge Santiago 92%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.