Demian Maia vs Kamaru Usman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-11-0Record21-4-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReach76"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Demian Maia Jiu-JitsuTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Kamaru Usman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Demian Maia carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1788
If they lose-10→ 1764
If they win+10→ 1832
If they lose-14→ 1808
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1768 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1799 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Demian MaiaKamaru Usman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kamaru Usman78%
Demian Maia 22%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Kamaru Usman a 78% favorite over Demian Maia in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Kamaru Usman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1822 to 1774, a 48-point edge.
Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Demian Maia finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Kamaru Usman 48%.
Demian Maia and Kamaru Usman share 4 common opponents: Gilbert Burns, Colby Covington, Tyron Woodley and Jorge Masvidal.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.