Combat Edge Intelligence

Demian Maia vs Mario Miranda

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-11-0Record14-7-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'3"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Demian Maia Jiu-JitsuTeamBlack House

What's at stake

Demian Maia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Mario Miranda carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Demian MaiaNow 1774
If they win+7→ 1781
If they lose-17→ 1757
Mario MirandaNow 1615
If they win+23→ 1638
If they lose-9→ 1606

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1768 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1572 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.80
Sig. strikes / min
1.96
44%
Strike accuracy
54%
2.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.46
64%
Strike defense
37%
2.49
Takedown avg.
1.02
25%
Takedown accuracy
60%
62%
Takedown defense
55%
0.99
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Demian MaiaMario Miranda
160016501700175018002012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

3 (11%)
KO/TKO
6 (43%)
14 (50%)
Submission
5 (36%)
11 (39%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Demian Maia79%
Mario Miranda 21%Elo baseline: 71%

The Combat Edge model makes Demian Maia a 79% favorite over Mario Miranda in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).

Demian Maia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1615, a 159-point edge.

Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mario Miranda enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Demian Maia finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Mario Miranda 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.