Combat Edge Intelligence

Demian Maia vs Nate Marquardt

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

28-11-0Record36-20-2
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReach42,0"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Demian Maia Jiu-JitsuTeamHigh Altitude Martial Arts

What's at stake

Demian Maia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Nate Marquardt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Demian MaiaNow 1774
If they win+8→ 1782
If they lose-16→ 1758
Nate MarquardtNow 1651
If they win+16→ 1667
If they lose-8→ 1643

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1768 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1622 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.80
Sig. strikes / min
2.71
44%
Strike accuracy
49%
2.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.32
64%
Strike defense
56%
2.49
Takedown avg.
1.87
25%
Takedown accuracy
51%
62%
Takedown defense
71%
0.99
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Demian MaiaNate Marquardt
165017001750180020202021

Win method breakdown

3 (11%)
KO/TKO
13 (36%)
14 (50%)
Submission
15 (42%)
11 (39%)
Decision
8 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Demian Maia78%
Nate Marquardt 22%Elo baseline: 67%

The Combat Edge model makes Demian Maia a 78% favorite over Nate Marquardt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).

Demian Maia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1651, a 123-point edge.

Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Demian Maia finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Nate Marquardt 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.