Demian Maia vs Rick Story
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-11-0Record21-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
TBDReach40,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Demian Maia Jiu-JitsuTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Demian Maia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Rick Story carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1785
If they lose-13→ 1761
If they win+13→ 1757
If they lose-11→ 1733
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1768 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1641 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Demian MaiaRick Story
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rick Story61%
Demian Maia 39%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Rick Story a 61% favorite over Demian Maia in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Demian Maia's way (46%).
Demian Maia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1744, a 30-point edge.
Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Demian Maia finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Rick Story 43%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.