Demian Maia vs Rory MacDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-11-0Record23-10-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReach76.00
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Demian Maia Jiu-JitsuTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
Demian Maia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Rory MacDonald carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1784
If they lose-14→ 1760
If they win+14→ 1739
If they lose-10→ 1715
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1768 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1729 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Demian MaiaRory MacDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rory MacDonald59%
Demian Maia 41%Elo baseline: 43%
The Combat Edge model makes Rory MacDonald a 59% favorite over Demian Maia in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Demian Maia's way (43%).
Demian Maia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1725, a 49-point edge.
Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rory MacDonald enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Demian Maia finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Rory MacDonald 70%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.