Combat Edge Intelligence

Demian Maia vs Rory MacDonald

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-11-0Record23-10-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReach76.00
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Demian Maia Jiu-JitsuTeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

Demian Maia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Rory MacDonald carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Demian MaiaNow 1774
If they win+11→ 1785
If they lose-13→ 1761
Rory MacDonaldNow 1741
If they win+13→ 1754
If they lose-11→ 1730

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1768 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1740 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.80
Sig. strikes / min
3.75
44%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.80
64%
Strike defense
62%
2.49
Takedown avg.
1.77
25%
Takedown accuracy
48%
62%
Takedown defense
89%
0.99
Submission avg.
0.42

Trajectory

Demian MaiaRory MacDonald
17501800201920202021

Win method breakdown

3 (11%)
KO/TKO
7 (30%)
14 (50%)
Submission
9 (39%)
11 (39%)
Decision
7 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Rory MacDonald60%
Demian Maia 40%Elo baseline: 45%

The Combat Edge model makes Rory MacDonald a 60% favorite over Demian Maia in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Demian Maia's way (45%).

Demian Maia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1741, a 33-point edge.

Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Rory MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Demian Maia finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Rory MacDonald 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.