Demian Maia vs Ryan LaFlare
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
28-11-0Record14-3-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'1"
TBDReach42,5"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Demian Maia Jiu-JitsuTeamLong Island MMA
What's at stake
Demian Maia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Ryan LaFlare carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1784
If they lose-14→ 1760
If they win+18→ 1739
If they lose-14→ 1707
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1768 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1668 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Demian MaiaRyan LaFlare
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryan LaFlare56%
Demian Maia 44%Elo baseline: 42%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryan LaFlare a 56% favorite over Demian Maia in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Demian Maia's way (42%).
Demian Maia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1721, a 53-point edge.
Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Demian Maia finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Ryan LaFlare 50%.
Demian Maia and Ryan LaFlare share 1 common opponent: Anthony Rocco Martin.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.