Denis Goltsov vs Fabrício Werdum
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
37-9-0Record24-10-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'4"
78"Reach45,0"
248 lbsWeight246 lbs
Sambo PiterTeamWerdum Combat Team
What's at stake
Fabrício Werdum is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Denis Goltsov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1800
If they lose-11→ 1776
If they win+11→ 1814
If they lose-13→ 1790
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1655 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1725 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Denis GoltsovFabrício Werdum
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Denis Goltsov66%
Fabrício Werdum 34%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Denis Goltsov a 66% favorite over Fabrício Werdum in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Fabrício Werdum's way (48%).
Fabrício Werdum holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1803 to 1787, a 16-point edge.
Denis Goltsov finishes 84% of wins inside the distance, Fabrício Werdum 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.