Deniz Ilbay vs Kaiwen Li
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-3-0Record17-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'9"
70"Reach69"
146 lbsWeight150 lbs
UFD GymTeamK-1 Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1635
If they lose-16→ 1603
If they win+12→ 1629
If they lose-12→ 1605
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1526 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1596 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Deniz IlbayKaiwen Li
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Deniz Ilbay53%
Kaiwen Li 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Deniz Ilbay a 53% favorite over Kaiwen Li in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1619 vs 1617), separated by just 2 points.
Deniz Ilbay enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Deniz Ilbay finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Kaiwen Li 65%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.