Combat Edge Intelligence

Dennis Bermudez vs Pablo Garza

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Pablo Garza
us

Pablo Garza

“The Scarecrow”

12-4-0FeatherweightUFC

1606Solid

Tale of the tape

17-9-0Record12-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height6'1"
66,0"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Long Island MMATeamAcademy of Combat Arts

What's at stake

Dennis Bermudez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Pablo Garza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dennis BermudezNow 1629
If they win+11→ 1640
If they lose-13→ 1616
Pablo GarzaNow 1606
If they win+17→ 1623
If they lose-15→ 1591

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1649 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1543 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.42
Sig. strikes / min
3.37
46%
Strike accuracy
44%
3.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.70
59%
Strike defense
50%
3.89
Takedown avg.
0.94
40%
Takedown accuracy
25%
83%
Takedown defense
15%
1.07
Submission avg.
1.26

Trajectory

Dennis BermudezPablo Garza
16001650201120122013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

4 (24%)
KO/TKO
3 (25%)
3 (18%)
Submission
6 (50%)
10 (59%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Dennis Bermudez60%
Pablo Garza 40%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Dennis Bermudez a 60% favorite over Pablo Garza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Dennis Bermudez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1629 to 1606, a 23-point edge.

Dennis Bermudez finishes 41% of wins inside the distance, Pablo Garza 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.