Combat Edge Intelligence

Dennis Siver vs Naoyuki Kotani

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-11-0Record37-19-7
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
70,0"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
KibojuTeamRodeo Style

What's at stake

Dennis Siver is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Naoyuki Kotani carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dennis SiverNow 1668
If they win+9→ 1677
If they lose-15→ 1653
Naoyuki KotaniNow 1594
If they win+15→ 1609
If they lose-9→ 1585

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1677 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1504 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.87
Sig. strikes / min
1.02
32%
Strike accuracy
31%
2.67
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.89
65%
Strike defense
50%
0.87
Takedown avg.
0.83
33%
Takedown accuracy
17%
65%
Takedown defense
47%
0.33
Submission avg.
0.83

Trajectory

Dennis SiverNaoyuki Kotani
16001650201520162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

7 (30%)
KO/TKO
6 (16%)
7 (30%)
Submission
27 (73%)
9 (39%)
Decision
4 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Dennis Siver70%
Naoyuki Kotani 30%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Dennis Siver a 70% favorite over Naoyuki Kotani in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Dennis Siver holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1668 to 1594, a 74-point edge.

Naoyuki Kotani enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Dennis Siver finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Naoyuki Kotani 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.