Dennis Siver vs Paul Kelly
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-11-0Record15-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'9"
70,0"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight169 lbs
KibojuTeamTeam Kaobon
What's at stake
Dennis Siver is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Paul Kelly carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1676
If they lose-16→ 1652
If they win+22→ 1556
If they lose-10→ 1524
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1677 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1594 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dennis SiverPaul Kelly
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dennis Siver67%
Paul Kelly 33%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Dennis Siver a 67% favorite over Paul Kelly in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Dennis Siver holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1668 to 1534, a 134-point edge.
Paul Kelly enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Dennis Siver finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Paul Kelly 80%.
Dennis Siver and Paul Kelly share 1 common opponent: Donald Cerrone.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.