Combat Edge Intelligence

Dennis Siver vs Tom Pagliarulo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-11-0Record11-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height6'0"
70,0"Reach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
KibojuTeamNew England Cartel· 1665 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dennis SiverNow 1668
If they win+12→ 1680
If they lose-12→ 1656
Tom PagliaruloNow 1669
If they win+16→ 1685
If they lose-16→ 1653

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1677 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.87
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
32%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.67
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
65%
Strike defense
TBD
0.87
Takedown avg.
TBD
33%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
65%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.33
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Dennis SiverTom Pagliarulo
16001650201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (30%)
KO/TKO
9 (82%)
7 (30%)
Submission
1 (9%)
9 (39%)
Decision
1 (9%)

Combat Edge model read

Tom Pagliarulo71%
Dennis Siver 29%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Tom Pagliarulo a 71% favorite over Dennis Siver in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1668 vs 1669), separated by just 1 points.

Tom Pagliarulo enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Dennis Siver finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Tom Pagliarulo 91%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.