Combat Edge Intelligence

Derek Brunson vs Kevin Holland

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-9-0Record29-15-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'3"
77,0"Reach81"
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamPhalanx MMA Academy

What's at stake

Derek Brunson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Kevin Holland carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Derek BrunsonNow 1755
If they win+11→ 1766
If they lose-13→ 1742
Kevin HollandNow 1736
If they win+13→ 1749
If they lose-11→ 1725

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1740 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.51
Sig. strikes / min
4.24
47%
Strike accuracy
50%
3.05
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.21
51%
Strike defense
50%
3.14
Takedown avg.
0.79
33%
Takedown accuracy
0%
86%
Takedown defense
58%
0.61
Submission avg.
0.60

Trajectory

Derek BrunsonKevin Holland
175020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (50%)
KO/TKO
14 (48%)
4 (17%)
Submission
9 (31%)
8 (33%)
Decision
6 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Kevin Holland66%
Derek Brunson 34%Elo baseline: 47%

The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Holland a 66% favorite over Derek Brunson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Derek Brunson's way (47%).

Derek Brunson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1755 to 1736, a 19-point edge.

Derek Brunson finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Holland 79%.

Kevin Holland carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.