Derek Brunson vs Lorenz Larkin
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-9-0Record27-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'11"
77,0"Reach73"
186 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamMillennia MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1768
If they lose-12→ 1744
If they win+12→ 1778
If they lose-12→ 1754
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1745 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1639 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Derek BrunsonLorenz Larkin
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Derek Brunson57%
Lorenz Larkin 43%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Derek Brunson a 57% favorite over Lorenz Larkin in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lorenz Larkin's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1756 vs 1766), separated by just 10 points.
Lorenz Larkin enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Derek Brunson finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Lorenz Larkin 56%.
Derek Brunson carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.