Combat Edge Intelligence

Derek Brunson vs Lorenz Larkin

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-9-0Record27-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'11"
77,0"Reach73"
186 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamMillennia MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Derek BrunsonNow 1755
If they win+12→ 1767
If they lose-12→ 1743
Lorenz LarkinNow 1766
If they win+12→ 1778
If they lose-12→ 1754

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1640 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.51
Sig. strikes / min
3.53
47%
Strike accuracy
46%
3.05
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.74
51%
Strike defense
64%
3.14
Takedown avg.
0.27
33%
Takedown accuracy
43%
86%
Takedown defense
79%
0.61
Submission avg.
0.09

Trajectory

Derek BrunsonLorenz Larkin
1750202220232024

Win method breakdown

12 (50%)
KO/TKO
15 (56%)
4 (17%)
Submission
0 (0%)
8 (33%)
Decision
12 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Lorenz Larkin56%
Derek Brunson 44%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Lorenz Larkin a 56% favorite over Derek Brunson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1755 vs 1766), separated by just 11 points.

Lorenz Larkin enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Derek Brunson finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Lorenz Larkin 56%.

Derek Brunson carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.