Combat Edge Intelligence

Derek Brunson vs Lyoto Machida

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-9-0Record26-12-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
77,0"Reach74"
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamAPAM

What's at stake

Derek Brunson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Lyoto Machida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Derek BrunsonNow 1755
If they win+10→ 1765
If they lose-14→ 1741
Lyoto MachidaNow 1685
If they win+14→ 1699
If they lose-10→ 1675

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.51
Sig. strikes / min
2.59
47%
Strike accuracy
53%
3.05
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.57
51%
Strike defense
62%
3.14
Takedown avg.
1.21
33%
Takedown accuracy
65%
86%
Takedown defense
76%
0.61
Submission avg.
0.40

Trajectory

Derek BrunsonLyoto Machida
170017502020202120222023

Win method breakdown

12 (50%)
KO/TKO
11 (42%)
4 (17%)
Submission
2 (8%)
8 (33%)
Decision
13 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Derek Brunson78%
Lyoto Machida 22%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Derek Brunson a 78% favorite over Lyoto Machida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Derek Brunson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1755 to 1685, a 70-point edge.

Lyoto Machida enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Derek Brunson finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Lyoto Machida 50%.

Derek Brunson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.