Derek Brunson vs Reinier de Ridder
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-9-0Record22-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'4"
77,0"Reach 78"
186 lbsWeight205 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamCombat Brothers
What's at stake
Reinier de Ridder is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Derek Brunson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1768
If they lose-11→ 1744
If they win+15→ 1785
If they lose-17→ 1753
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1722 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Derek BrunsonReinier de Ridder
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Reinier de Ridder72%
Derek Brunson 28%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Reinier de Ridder a 72% favorite over Derek Brunson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Reinier de Ridder holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1770 to 1755, a 15-point edge.
Derek Brunson finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Reinier de Ridder 86%.
Derek Brunson and Reinier de Ridder share 1 common opponent: Kevin Holland.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.