Combat Edge Intelligence

Derek Brunson vs Roan Carneiro

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-9-0Record21-13-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'11"
77,0"Reach74,0"
186 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamAmerican Top Team Atlanta

What's at stake

Derek Brunson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Roan Carneiro carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Derek BrunsonNow 1755
If they win+10→ 1765
If they lose-14→ 1741
Roan CarneiroNow 1700
If they win+14→ 1714
If they lose-10→ 1690

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1635 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.51
Sig. strikes / min
1.46
47%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.05
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.82
51%
Strike defense
63%
3.14
Takedown avg.
3.05
33%
Takedown accuracy
42%
86%
Takedown defense
83%
0.61
Submission avg.
1.45

Trajectory

Derek BrunsonRoan Carneiro
17001750201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

12 (50%)
KO/TKO
3 (14%)
4 (17%)
Submission
9 (43%)
8 (33%)
Decision
9 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Derek Brunson78%
Roan Carneiro 22%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Derek Brunson a 78% favorite over Roan Carneiro in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Derek Brunson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1755 to 1700, a 55-point edge.

Derek Brunson finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Roan Carneiro 57%.

Derek Brunson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.