Derek Brunson vs Ronaldo Souza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-9-0Record26-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
77,0"Reach72"
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamFusion X-Cel Performance
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1767
If they lose-12→ 1743
If they win+12→ 1761
If they lose-12→ 1737
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Derek BrunsonRonaldo Souza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Derek Brunson63%
Ronaldo Souza 37%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Derek Brunson a 63% favorite over Ronaldo Souza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1755 vs 1749), separated by just 6 points.
Ronaldo Souza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Derek Brunson finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Ronaldo Souza 85%.
Derek Brunson and Ronaldo Souza share 1 common opponent: Kevin Holland.
Derek Brunson carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.