Combat Edge Intelligence

Derek Brunson vs Sam Alvey

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Sam Alvey
us

Sam Alvey

“Smile'n”

34-18-1MiddleweightB2FS

1640Solid

Tale of the tape

24-9-0Record34-18-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'2"
77,0"Reach75"
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTeam Quest

What's at stake

Derek Brunson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Sam Alvey carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Derek BrunsonNow 1755
If they win+8→ 1763
If they lose-16→ 1739
Sam AlveyNow 1640
If they win+16→ 1656
If they lose-8→ 1632

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1664 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.51
Sig. strikes / min
3.28
47%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.05
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.63
51%
Strike defense
53%
3.14
Takedown avg.
0.06
33%
Takedown accuracy
14%
86%
Takedown defense
82%
0.61
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Derek BrunsonSam Alvey
165017001750202120222023

Win method breakdown

12 (50%)
KO/TKO
20 (59%)
4 (17%)
Submission
3 (9%)
8 (33%)
Decision
11 (32%)

Combat Edge model read

Derek Brunson72%
Sam Alvey 28%Elo baseline: 66%

The Combat Edge model makes Derek Brunson a 72% favorite over Sam Alvey in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).

Derek Brunson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1755 to 1640, a 115-point edge.

Derek Brunson finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Sam Alvey 68%.

Derek Brunson carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.