Derek Brunson vs Yoel Romero
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-9-0Record16-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height5'10"
77,0"Reach73"
186 lbsWeight205 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Derek Brunson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Yoel Romero carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1766
If they lose-13→ 1742
If they win+17→ 1748
If they lose-15→ 1716
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1744 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Derek BrunsonYoel Romero
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Derek Brunson58%
Yoel Romero 42%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Derek Brunson a 58% favorite over Yoel Romero in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Derek Brunson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1755 to 1731, a 24-point edge.
Derek Brunson finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Yoel Romero 81%.
Derek Brunson and Yoel Romero share 1 common opponent: Israel Adesanya.
Derek Brunson carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.