Combat Edge Intelligence

Derek Downey vs Dmitrii Ceacusta

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Derek Downey
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Derek Downey

“The Gentleman”

11-4-0MiddleweightJHEFN

1524Average

Tale of the tape

11-4-0Record2-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height5'11"
TBDReach-
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Victory MMATeamTBD

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Derek DowneyNow 1524
If they win+16→ 1540
If they lose-16→ 1508
Dmitrii CeacustaNow 1525
If they win+24→ 1549
If they lose-24→ 1501

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1506 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 3 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.32
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
100%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.36
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
13%
Strike defense
TBD
2.40
Takedown avg.
TBD
17%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Derek DowneyDmitrii Ceacusta
15001550200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (45%)
KO/TKO
2 (100%)
5 (45%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (9%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Dmitrii Ceacusta66%
Derek Downey 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Dmitrii Ceacusta a 66% favorite over Derek Downey in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1524 vs 1525), separated by just 1 points.

Derek Downey finishes 91% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.