Combat Edge Intelligence

Deron Winn vs Gerald Meerschaert

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-3-0Record37-22-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'6"Height6'1"
TBDReach 77"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Gerald Meerschaert is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Deron Winn carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Deron WinnNow 1596
If they win+18→ 1614
If they lose-14→ 1582
Gerald MeerschaertNow 1650
If they win+10→ 1660
If they lose-14→ 1636

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1688 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.55
Sig. strikes / min
3.01
45%
Strike accuracy
45%
6.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.52
46%
Strike defense
53%
4.28
Takedown avg.
1.82
53%
Takedown accuracy
30%
40%
Takedown defense
43%
0
Submission avg.
1.38

Trajectory

Deron WinnGerald Meerschaert
1600165017002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (57%)
KO/TKO
6 (16%)
0 (0%)
Submission
29 (78%)
3 (43%)
Decision
2 (5%)

Combat Edge model read

Gerald Meerschaert58%
Deron Winn 42%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Gerald Meerschaert a 58% favorite over Deron Winn in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Gerald Meerschaert holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1650 to 1596, a 54-point edge.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Deron Winn finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Gerald Meerschaert 95%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.