Derrick Lewis vs Gabriel Gonzaga
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-14-0Record17-12-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
79"Reach42,0"
264 lbsWeight264 lbs
Main Street Boxing & Muay ThaiTeamTeam Link
What's at stake
Derrick Lewis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Gabriel Gonzaga carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1752
If they lose-16→ 1728
If they win+16→ 1628
If they lose-8→ 1604
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1717 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Derrick LewisGabriel Gonzaga
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Derrick Lewis79%
Gabriel Gonzaga 21%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Derrick Lewis a 79% favorite over Gabriel Gonzaga in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Derrick Lewis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1612, a 132-point edge.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Gabriel Gonzaga enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Derrick Lewis finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Gabriel Gonzaga 94%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.