Derrick Lewis vs Guto Inocente
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-14-0Record10-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
79"ReachTBD
264 lbsWeight254 lbs
Main Street Boxing & Muay ThaiTeamReal Kombat Technique
What's at stake
Derrick Lewis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Guto Inocente carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+5→ 1749
If they lose-19→ 1725
If they win+39→ 1535
If they lose-9→ 1487
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1717 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1609 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Derrick LewisGuto Inocente
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Derrick Lewis92%
Guto Inocente 8%Elo baseline: 81%
The Combat Edge model makes Derrick Lewis a 92% favorite over Guto Inocente in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (81%).
Derrick Lewis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1496, a 248-point edge.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Guto Inocente enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Derrick Lewis finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Guto Inocente 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.