Derrick Lewis vs Jailton Almeida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-14-0Record22-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
79"Reach79"
264 lbsWeight241 lbs
Main Street Boxing & Muay ThaiTeamGalpao da Luta
What's at stake
Jailton Almeida is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Derrick Lewis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1757
If they lose-11→ 1733
If they win+15→ 1786
If they lose-17→ 1754
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1717 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1717 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Derrick LewisJailton Almeida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jailton Almeida60%
Derrick Lewis 40%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Jailton Almeida a 60% favorite over Derrick Lewis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Jailton Almeida holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1771 to 1744, a 27-point edge.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jailton Almeida enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Derrick Lewis finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Jailton Almeida 95%.
Derrick Lewis and Jailton Almeida share 1 common opponent: Serghei Spivac.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.