Derrick Lewis vs Junior dos Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-14-0Record23-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
79"Reach77"
264 lbsWeight250 lbs
Main Street Boxing & Muay ThaiTeamChampion Team
What's at stake
Derrick Lewis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Junior dos Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1753
If they lose-15→ 1729
If they win+15→ 1657
If they lose-9→ 1633
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1717 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Derrick LewisJunior dos Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Derrick Lewis76%
Junior dos Santos 24%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Derrick Lewis a 76% favorite over Junior dos Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Derrick Lewis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1642, a 102-point edge.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Junior dos Santos enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Derrick Lewis finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Junior dos Santos 74%.
Derrick Lewis and Junior dos Santos share 1 common opponent: Tai Tuivasa.
Derrick Lewis carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.