Derrick Lewis vs Marcin Tybura
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-14-0Record27-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
79"Reach78"
264 lbsWeight247 lbs
Main Street Boxing & Muay ThaiTeamAnkos MMA
What's at stake
Derrick Lewis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Marcin Tybura carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1755
If they lose-13→ 1731
If they win+13→ 1734
If they lose-11→ 1710
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1717 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1720 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Derrick LewisMarcin Tybura
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Derrick Lewis and Marcin Tybura within a point of even.
Derrick Lewis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1721, a 23-point edge.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marcin Tybura enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Derrick Lewis finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Marcin Tybura 63%.
Derrick Lewis and Marcin Tybura share 2 common opponents: Serghei Spivac and Tai Tuivasa.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.