Derrick Lewis vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-14-0Record22-9-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
79"Reach75"
264 lbsWeight262 lbs
Main Street Boxing & Muay ThaiTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Derrick Lewis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Marcos Rogerio de Lima carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1755
If they lose-14→ 1731
If they win+19→ 1691
If they lose-13→ 1659
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1718 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1687 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Derrick LewisMarcos Rogerio de Lima
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Derrick Lewis70%
Marcos Rogerio de Lima 30%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Derrick Lewis a 70% favorite over Marcos Rogerio de Lima in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Derrick Lewis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1745 to 1672, a 73-point edge.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Derrick Lewis finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Marcos Rogerio de Lima 82%.
Derrick Lewis and Marcos Rogerio de Lima share 1 common opponent: Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
Derrick Lewis carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.