Derrick Lewis vs Matt Mitrione
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-14-0Record13-9-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
79"Reach43,0"
264 lbsWeight255 lbs
Main Street Boxing & Muay ThaiTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Derrick Lewis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Matt Mitrione carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1752
If they lose-16→ 1728
If they win+21→ 1653
If they lose-11→ 1621
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1717 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1707 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Derrick LewisMatt Mitrione
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Derrick Lewis84%
Matt Mitrione 16%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Derrick Lewis a 84% favorite over Matt Mitrione in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Derrick Lewis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1632, a 112-point edge.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matt Mitrione enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Derrick Lewis finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Matt Mitrione 85%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.