Derrick Lewis vs Rodrigo Nascimento
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-14-0Record11-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
79"Reach80"
264 lbsWeight265 lbs
Main Street Boxing & Muay ThaiTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Derrick Lewis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Rodrigo Nascimento carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1753
If they lose-15→ 1729
If they win+20→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1654
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1717 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1653 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Derrick LewisRodrigo Nascimento
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Derrick Lewis70%
Rodrigo Nascimento 30%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Derrick Lewis a 70% favorite over Rodrigo Nascimento in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Derrick Lewis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1666, a 78-point edge.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Derrick Lewis finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Rodrigo Nascimento 73%.
Derrick Lewis and Rodrigo Nascimento share 1 common opponent: Chris Daukaus.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.