Derrick Lewis vs Roy Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-14-0Record24-20-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'0"
79"Reach72,0"
264 lbsWeight249 lbs
Main Street Boxing & Muay ThaiTeamCountry Club
What's at stake
Derrick Lewis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Roy Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1752
If they lose-16→ 1728
If they win+16→ 1642
If they lose-8→ 1618
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1717 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1669 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Derrick LewisRoy Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Derrick Lewis84%
Roy Nelson 16%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Derrick Lewis a 84% favorite over Roy Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Derrick Lewis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1626, a 118-point edge.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Roy Nelson enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Derrick Lewis finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Roy Nelson 83%.
Derrick Lewis carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.