Derrick Lewis vs Ruan Potts
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-14-0Record11-7-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
79"ReachTBD
264 lbsWeight251 lbs
Main Street Boxing & Muay ThaiTeamMark Robinson MMA
What's at stake
Derrick Lewis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Ruan Potts carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1751
If they lose-17→ 1727
If they win+23→ 1597
If they lose-9→ 1565
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1717 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1567 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Derrick LewisRuan Potts
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Derrick Lewis88%
Ruan Potts 12%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Derrick Lewis a 88% favorite over Ruan Potts in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Derrick Lewis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1574, a 170-point edge.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Derrick Lewis finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Ruan Potts 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.