Derrick Lewis vs Sergei Pavlovich
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-14-0Record21-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
79"Reach84"
264 lbsWeight260 lbs
Main Street Boxing & Muay ThaiTeamEagles MMA
What's at stake
Sergei Pavlovich is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Derrick Lewis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1758
If they lose-10→ 1734
If they win+13→ 1822
If they lose-19→ 1790
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1717 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1730 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Derrick LewisSergei Pavlovich
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sergei Pavlovich79%
Derrick Lewis 21%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Sergei Pavlovich a 79% favorite over Derrick Lewis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Sergei Pavlovich holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1809 to 1744, a 65-point edge.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Sergei Pavlovich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Derrick Lewis finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Sergei Pavlovich 76%.
Derrick Lewis and Sergei Pavlovich share 3 common opponents: Waldo Cortes-Acosta, Tallison Teixeira and Tai Tuivasa.
Sergei Pavlovich carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.