Derrick Lewis vs Serghei Spivac
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-14-0Record18-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
79"Reach 78"
264 lbsWeight256 lbs
Main Street Boxing & Muay ThaiTeamPolar Bear Team
What's at stake
Derrick Lewis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Serghei Spivac carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1755
If they lose-13→ 1731
If they win+17→ 1740
If they lose-15→ 1708
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1717 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1724 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Derrick LewisSerghei Spivac
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Serghei Spivac59%
Derrick Lewis 41%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Serghei Spivac a 59% favorite over Derrick Lewis in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Derrick Lewis's way (47%).
Derrick Lewis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1723, a 21-point edge.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Derrick Lewis finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Serghei Spivac 83%.
Derrick Lewis and Serghei Spivac share 2 common opponents: Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Jailton Almeida.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.