Derrick Lewis vs Shamil Erdogan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-14-0Record14-0-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
79"Reach79"
264 lbsWeight205 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1757
If they lose-12→ 1733
If they win+16→ 1766
If they lose-16→ 1734
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1716 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Derrick LewisShamil Erdogan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shamil Erdogan64%
Derrick Lewis 36%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Shamil Erdogan a 64% favorite over Derrick Lewis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1745 vs 1750), separated by just 5 points.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Shamil Erdogan enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Derrick Lewis finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Shamil Erdogan 71%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.