Derrick Lewis vs Viktor Pesta
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-14-0Record19-9-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
79"ReachTBD
264 lbsWeight205 lbs
Main Street Boxing & Muay ThaiTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Derrick Lewis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Viktor Pesta carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1752
If they lose-16→ 1728
If they win+16→ 1649
If they lose-8→ 1625
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1717 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1571 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Derrick LewisViktor Pesta
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Derrick Lewis75%
Viktor Pesta 25%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Derrick Lewis a 75% favorite over Viktor Pesta in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Derrick Lewis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1633, a 111-point edge.
Derrick Lewis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Derrick Lewis finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Viktor Pesta 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.