Derrick Mehmen vs Karl Williams
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-10-0Record10-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
TBDReach79"
237 lbsWeight247 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAmerican Top Team Atlanta
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1612
If they lose-12→ 1588
If they win+16→ 1610
If they lose-16→ 1578
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1569 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1603 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Derrick MehmenKarl Williams
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Karl Williams60%
Derrick Mehmen 40%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Karl Williams a 60% favorite over Derrick Mehmen in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Derrick Mehmen's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1600 vs 1594), separated by just 6 points.
Derrick Mehmen enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Karl Williams enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Derrick Mehmen finishes 68% of wins inside the distance, Karl Williams 30%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.