Derrick Noble vs Thiago Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
27-15-1Record23-15-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReach70,0"
169 lbsWeight170 lbs
Minnesota Martial Arts AcademyTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Derrick Noble is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Thiago Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1610
If they lose-13→ 1586
If they win+13→ 1586
If they lose-11→ 1562
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1600 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1654 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Derrick NobleThiago Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thiago Alves63%
Derrick Noble 37%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Alves a 63% favorite over Derrick Noble in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Derrick Noble's way (46%).
Derrick Noble holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1599 to 1573, a 26-point edge.
Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Derrick Noble finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Alves 61%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.