Combat Edge Intelligence

Devonte Smith vs Julian Erosa

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-4-0Record31-13-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height6'1"
76"Reach74"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Factory XTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

Julian Erosa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Devonte Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Devonte SmithNow 1672
If they win+17→ 1689
If they lose-15→ 1657
Julian ErosaNow 1694
If they win+11→ 1705
If they lose-13→ 1681

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1614 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1670 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.55
Sig. strikes / min
6.21
53%
Strike accuracy
49%
3.91
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.27
50%
Strike defense
49%
0.35
Takedown avg.
1.78
25%
Takedown accuracy
44%
86%
Takedown defense
62%
0.35
Submission avg.
0.73

Trajectory

Devonte SmithJulian Erosa
17002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (91%)
KO/TKO
12 (39%)
1 (9%)
Submission
14 (45%)
0 (0%)
Decision
5 (16%)

Combat Edge model read

Devonte Smith54%
Julian Erosa 46%Elo baseline: 47%

The Combat Edge model makes Devonte Smith a 54% favorite over Julian Erosa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Julian Erosa's way (47%).

Julian Erosa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1694 to 1672, a 22-point edge.

Devonte Smith enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Julian Erosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Devonte Smith finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Julian Erosa 84%.

Devonte Smith carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.