Combat Edge Intelligence

Devonte Smith vs Justin Jaynes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-4-0Record17-11-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'8"
76"Reach68"
155 lbsWeight159 lbs
Factory XTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

Devonte Smith is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Justin Jaynes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Devonte SmithNow 1672
If they win+11→ 1683
If they lose-21→ 1651
Justin JaynesNow 1553
If they win+16→ 1569
If they lose-8→ 1545

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1614 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1591 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.55
Sig. strikes / min
3.34
53%
Strike accuracy
44%
3.91
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.33
50%
Strike defense
63%
0.35
Takedown avg.
0.75
25%
Takedown accuracy
40%
86%
Takedown defense
20%
0.35
Submission avg.
1.12

Trajectory

Devonte SmithJustin Jaynes
155016001650170020202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

10 (91%)
KO/TKO
8 (50%)
1 (9%)
Submission
6 (38%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Devonte Smith76%
Justin Jaynes 24%Elo baseline: 66%

The Combat Edge model makes Devonte Smith a 76% favorite over Justin Jaynes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).

Devonte Smith holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1672 to 1553, a 119-point edge.

Devonte Smith enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Devonte Smith finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Justin Jaynes 88%.

Devonte Smith carries a 8-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.