Diego Brandao vs Dustin Poirier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-21-0Record30-10-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'9"
38,0"Reach72″
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Dustin Poirier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Diego Brandao carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1622
If they lose-6→ 1598
If they win+6→ 1818
If they lose-18→ 1794
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1550 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1814 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Diego BrandaoDustin Poirier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dustin Poirier84%
Diego Brandao 16%Elo baseline: 77%
The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Poirier a 84% favorite over Diego Brandao in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (77%).
Dustin Poirier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1812 to 1604, a 208-point edge.
Diego Brandao enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Dustin Poirier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Diego Brandao finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Dustin Poirier 77%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.