Combat Edge Intelligence

Diego Costa vs Ricardo Lemos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Diego Costa
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Diego Costa

“Tigre”

4-2-0BantamweightLFA

1539Average

Tale of the tape

4-2-0Record5-0-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'7"
-Reach-
135 lbsWeight125 lbs
Five RoundsTeamCM System

What's at stake

Ricardo Lemos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +19 while a loss costs more — Diego Costa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Diego CostaNow 1539
If they win+29→ 1568
If they lose-19→ 1520
Ricardo LemosNow 1607
If they win+19→ 1626
If they lose-29→ 1578

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1513 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1517 · 4 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Diego CostaRicardo Lemos
1550160020252026

Win method breakdown

2 (50%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
1 (25%)
Submission
4 (80%)
1 (25%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Ricardo Lemos84%
Diego Costa 16%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Ricardo Lemos a 84% favorite over Diego Costa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Ricardo Lemos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1607 to 1539, a 68-point edge.

Ricardo Lemos enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Diego Costa finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Ricardo Lemos 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.