Combat Edge Intelligence

Diego Ferreira vs Dustin Poirier

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-7-0Record30-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
74"Reach72″
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fortis MMATeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Dustin Poirier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Diego Ferreira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Diego FerreiraNow 1737
If they win+15→ 1752
If they lose-9→ 1728
Dustin PoirierNow 1812
If they win+9→ 1821
If they lose-15→ 1797

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1735 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1814 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.70
Sig. strikes / min
5.30
40%
Strike accuracy
51%
3.46
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.33
56%
Strike defense
53%
0.82
Takedown avg.
1.24
3%
Takedown accuracy
36%
58%
Takedown defense
64%
0.55
Submission avg.
1.28

Trajectory

Diego FerreiraDustin Poirier
1750180018502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (25%)
KO/TKO
15 (50%)
7 (35%)
Submission
8 (27%)
8 (40%)
Decision
7 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Dustin Poirier66%
Diego Ferreira 34%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Poirier a 66% favorite over Diego Ferreira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Dustin Poirier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1812 to 1737, a 75-point edge.

Dustin Poirier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Diego Ferreira finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Dustin Poirier 77%.

Diego Ferreira carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.