Diego Ferreira vs Grant Dawson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-7-0Record24-3-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
74"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fortis MMATeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Grant Dawson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Diego Ferreira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1751
If they lose-10→ 1727
If they win+10→ 1812
If they lose-14→ 1788
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1735 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1723 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Diego FerreiraGrant Dawson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Grant Dawson73%
Diego Ferreira 27%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Grant Dawson a 73% favorite over Diego Ferreira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Grant Dawson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1802 to 1737, a 65-point edge.
Diego Ferreira finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Grant Dawson 79%.
Diego Ferreira and Grant Dawson share 1 common opponent: Mateusz Rębecki.
Diego Ferreira carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.