Combat Edge Intelligence

Diego Ferreira vs Gregor Gillespie

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-7-0Record14-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
74"Reach71,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fortis MMATeamBellmore Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

Gregor Gillespie is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Diego Ferreira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Diego FerreiraNow 1726
If they win+14→ 1740
If they lose-10→ 1716
Gregor GillespieNow 1772
If they win+14→ 1786
If they lose-18→ 1754

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1745 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.82
Sig. strikes / min
3.74
41%
Strike accuracy
53%
3.46
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.30
56%
Strike defense
58%
0.86
Takedown avg.
6.86
30%
Takedown accuracy
48%
58%
Takedown defense
100%
0.58
Submission avg.
0.76

Trajectory

Diego FerreiraGregor Gillespie
17502019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

5 (26%)
KO/TKO
7 (50%)
7 (37%)
Submission
5 (36%)
7 (37%)
Decision
2 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Gregor Gillespie70%
Diego Ferreira 30%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Gregor Gillespie a 70% favorite over Diego Ferreira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Gregor Gillespie holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1772 to 1726, a 46-point edge.

Diego Ferreira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Diego Ferreira finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Gregor Gillespie 86%.

Diego Ferreira carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.