Combat Edge Intelligence

Diego Ferreira vs Gregor Gillespie

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-7-0Record14-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
74"Reach71,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fortis MMATeamBellmore Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

Gregor Gillespie is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Diego Ferreira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Diego FerreiraNow 1737
If they win+13→ 1750
If they lose-11→ 1726
Gregor GillespieNow 1773
If they win+14→ 1787
If they lose-18→ 1755

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1735 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.70
Sig. strikes / min
3.74
40%
Strike accuracy
53%
3.46
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.30
56%
Strike defense
58%
0.82
Takedown avg.
6.86
3%
Takedown accuracy
48%
58%
Takedown defense
100%
0.55
Submission avg.
0.76

Trajectory

Diego FerreiraGregor Gillespie
175020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (25%)
KO/TKO
7 (50%)
7 (35%)
Submission
5 (36%)
8 (40%)
Decision
2 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Gregor Gillespie60%
Diego Ferreira 40%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Gregor Gillespie a 60% favorite over Diego Ferreira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Gregor Gillespie holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1773 to 1737, a 36-point edge.

Diego Ferreira finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Gregor Gillespie 86%.

Diego Ferreira carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.